There may be no sky forecast more consequential for Americans this spring than the one for Monday, when a solar eclipse will sweep across the country.

Predictions are especially meaningful for those in the path of totality — the roughly 115-mile-wide swath from Texas to Maine where the moon will completely block the sun, revealing the solar corona, the outermost part of the sun’s atmosphere. Millions of people are traveling into this path, but a cloudy forecast can spoil what many say is an incomparable experience. The United States won’t have another total solar eclipse until 2044.

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Forecasters now know where clouds will be in general, but specific details can vary, and conditions can change dramatically over small distances.

Here’s the latest forecast as of Monday morning Eastern time — it will also be the final update before the eclipse.

Note that, based on past years’ weather in areas that will be in the path of totality, Texas has been most likely to be cloud-free on April 8, while the zone from Ohio to Maine has more often had thick cloud cover.

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Key points

• Confidence in sunny skies is highest in northern New England because of high pressure; clouds associated with a weak cold front will probably stay to the north. There could be clouds moving into the Vermont portion of the eclipse track, but they should be high and thin clouds that still allow a decent view.
• Another front will be stalling out and weakening over the central states while approaching the Ohio and Tennessee valleys, causing an increase in clouds along portions of the path, especially near the eastern Great Lakes and in central to southern Texas.
• Totality locations where skies are most likely to be clear include the area from the northwestern half of Arkansas through south-central Indiana as well as northern New England. A zone from northeastern Vermont to Caribou in far northeastern Maine currently has the lowest predicted cloud percentage among totality locations.
• Other locations where cloud cover is forecast to be less than 25 percent include Little Rock and Hot Springs in Arkansas, Thayer in southern Missouri and Frankfort, Ind.
• Totality locations where the risk of clouds is highest, with cloud cover expected to exceed 75 percent, include south and central Texas, as well as parts of the eastern Great Lakes focused on New York. Texas is home to many of the cloudiest forecasts, which is the opposite of historical norms. San Antonio, Hondo and Eagle Pass look to be among the cloudier locations.
• The cloudiest locations in the Northeast are mainly from near lakes Erie and Ontario, including Jamestown, Buffalo and Rochester. It’s possible there could be some clouds building in far southern Indiana.
• Cloud cover often depends on processes happening at very small scales in the atmosphere — small enough that models don’t always have enough detailed data to accurately simulate them. This outlook is intended to offer only a general guide.

How the forecast has changed over the past day

• Cloud cover forecasts improved from near Dallas and into western Arkansas.
• The thickest cloud cover forecasts are focused farther south in Texas and in spots around lakes Erie and Ontario. Overall, there should be relatively few places with thick cloud cover during totality.
• Many areas with the most sunshine will still deal with some high clouds that are thin enough to allow a pretty good view of the eclipse. Much of northern New England will remain largely cloud-free, especially New Hampshire and Maine.
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Forecasts for several large cities in the path of totality

• Dallas (62 percent cloud cover — somewhat sunnier than previous forecasts): Variable cloud cover is likely during the day before a risk of strong to severe storms toward evening. Folks in the region should prepare for severe weather, including tornadoes, in the hours following the eclipse. The Weather Service office there points out that morning low clouds should break a bit this afternoon, particularly north of Interstate 20 that cuts through the city. Thicker clouds are expected to the south. Temperatures are forecast in the mid-70s to around 80 at eclipse time, with increasing humidity.
• Little Rock (14 percent cloud cover — sunnier trend compared to previous forecasts): The forecast has trended sunnier the past couple of days near the city. The Weather Service in Little Rock notes that “favorable viewing conditions are expected along and northwest of the I-30/US-67 corridor [Little Rock area], with only high cirrus clouds to note.” Scattered thunderstorms are possible into the night. Temperatures are forecast to reach the mid-70s to near 80 with modest humidity.
• Indianapolis (34 percent cloud cover — stable from previous forecasts): Indianapolis will see a good deal of sunshine, although some high clouds are a risk. “We could not ask for a much better setup for near ideal conditions for eclipse viewing locally,” writes the Weather Service office serving the area. Temperatures are forecast to be near 70 degrees with minimal humidity.
• Cleveland (35 percent cloud cover — trending sunnier compared to previous forecasts): Some clouds are passing the area this morning but sunnier skies are approaching from the west, so at least partial sunshine seems likely. The Weather Service office serving the area notes that cloud “coverage is not as expansive as current models suggest it should be, so there is some future optimism for the afternoon sky cover forecast.” Temperatures should be in the upper 50s to mid-60s, which is warmer than normal.
• Buffalo (87 percent cloud cover — trending cloudier than previous forecasts): Numerous clouds are likely, mainly high and mid-level, with a few showers possible. “This certainly will lead to less than optimal conditions for viewing the eclipse across western New York, the Genesee Valley and western Finger Lakes,” the Weather Service office serving the area writes, while noting that areas east of Lake Ontario and into northern New York will have improved viewing prospects. Temperatures are probably around the mid-50s, which is milder than average for the date.
• Burlington, Vt. (41 percent cloud cover — trending cloudier than previous forecasts): Five to 10 inches of snow just fell in the area, but high pressure parked nearby Monday helps boost the chance of sunshine. High clouds approaching from the west will arrive in the region during the afternoon. The Weather Service office there says: “the Northeast Kingdom, being farthest northeast in our forecast area, looks most likely to be the clearest spot at 2 PM today.” Near-average temperatures are expected, around 50 to 55.

Note that the cloud cover percentage forecasts tend to err on the pessimistic side and don’t distinguish between high, thin clouds — through which the eclipse could still be seen — and low, thick clouds that would obstruct it.

If you don’t see your city on the list above, you can look up the cloud forecast for any location in the table below:

Forecast data is from the Weather Service’s National Digital Forecast Database in the Lower 48 and the National Blend of Models elsewhere. Type of eclipse data is from the U.S. Navy.

Emily Eng, Tim Meko, Szu Yu Chen, Emily Sabens and Dan Stillman contributed to this report.

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